Friday, March 1, 2013

The Stock Bubble is Going to Pop


http://www.cryptomundo.com/wp-content/uploads/black_tuesday_2.jpg The growth in the stock market we have seen over the last 4 years, but especially the last year is a product of the Federal Reserve buying tens of billions of  dollars worth of assets from banks each month, which effectively puts tens of billions worth of no interest cash into the market. This "free" money is giving the market an artificial high, and the market largely doesn't understand the consequences of the Fed's actions.

If they understood what was going on, they would be pulling their money out as fast as they could and the market would plunge. We are being set up for hyper inflation. On top of that, the ride to the top will run out of steam eventually. Normally the market is driven by everyone, but the amount of people with spare income is dropping rapidly, and not just for individuals. Major corporations are suffering. I'm sure you have heard the woes of JC Penny and Wal-Mart. If those giants are hurting, the suffering is pandemic.

This would suggest that the driving force behind the markets rise would be those who are only a few steps away from the free money being pumped into the banks. Those same corporations are also the ones that compose the majority of the three largest indices, DOW, S&P 500, and Nasdaq. The rest of the market gets a boost, not from receiving a direct benefit of the free money, but literally an emotional high derived from seeing the major players doing well.

Simply put the stock market is pure emotion. When the players are happy prices rise, when they are scared, prices fall. Historically the three major indices all rise and fall together, and when they rise the rest of the market gets an emotional high from it, and for the most part, the general market rises. There are always exceptions, and it's not a given that a rise in general market will be reflected in a given stock, or that a drop in the general market will cause a stock that is doing well to falter.

But this is different. The economy isn't doing well, taxes are not favorable for either corporations or individuals, and inflation and unemployment are rising. All of this eats away at the purchasing power of the economy as a whole, which in turn should drive the market down. When Wall Street runs counter to the economy, something gotta give, and economy isn't budging.

This is why I say the bubble is going to pop. When is uncertain, but inevitable. If you want to ride this wave, do so at your own risk. I would advise to keep as much cash on hand as you possibly can. You will make out like a bandit picking up loads of blue chip stocks for pennies on dollar when market hits bottom.

I would also advise getting yourself a month to three months worth of food and gas. A fair number of people in the country are preparing this way, and the more that do, the less of an impact hyperinflation will have. It is almost certain to hit us shortly after, if it isn't the direct cause of the "Pop."